For years matcha was a comfortable buyer’s market outside Japan. Since 2024 that has changed. Global demand for matcha drinks and products grew faster than tencha production could expand, and the effects reached wholesale buyers as higher prices, shorter quote validity, purchase limits and longer lead times, particularly for premium first-harvest grades.
This note explains the mechanics without pretending to forecast prices, and sets out what buyers can do about it.
01 · Why supply is slow
Why supply cannot respond quickly
Tencha production is constrained by things that take years to change:
- Shaded fields. Converting fields to shaded tencha production takes investment and time, and the leaf is only harvested once or twice a year.
- Milling capacity. Stone milling is slow; adding capacity means adding mills and skilled operators.
- Labour and farm demographics. Japanese tea farming faces an ageing workforce, limiting how fast output grows.
- First harvest is finite. The most demanded grades come from one short window in spring; when it is sold, it is gone until next year.
02 · What buyers notice
What buyers are seeing
| Symptom | What is behind it |
|---|---|
| Quotes valid for weeks, not months | Suppliers cannot promise prices across the harvest |
| Purchase limits or allocations | Producers spreading limited stock across customers |
| Higher prices on premium grades first | Demand concentrated on first-harvest, well-known regions |
| Later-harvest and blended grades used more | Buyers reformulating for volume products |
| Longer lead times | Milling and packing queues |
03 · Reformulate
Reduce dependence on the scarcest grades
Not every product needs first-harvest, single-region matcha. Lattes, baked goods, ice cream and confectionery are usually better served by grades chosen for color and flavor in the finished product; see choosing matcha for lattes versus retail tins. Splitting your range into a premium line and a volume line lets you protect margin on the volume line while keeping the premium story.
04 · Diversify
Diversify origin and supplier
Regions such as Kagoshima, Shizuoka, Nishio and Yame supply excellent beverage and food grades, often with more available volume than the most famous origins. Working with two suppliers, or one supplier able to source across regions, reduces the risk of a single allocation cut. Our regions guide is a starting point.
05 · Forecast and contract
Forecast honestly and formalise it
Suppliers allocate scarce stock to buyers who forecast and follow through. A written supply arrangement covering annual volume, price review points, lot approval and what happens if harvest falls short is worth more than a lower spot price; see what to put in a matcha supply agreement.
Buyers who confirm annual needs before or shortly after the first harvest are far more likely to receive their allocation than buyers who arrive in autumn. See the matcha supply calendar.
06 · Protect quality
Watch quality as much as price
Tight markets invite substitution: later-harvest leaf sold as first harvest, blends sold as single origin, or “Uji” labels on regionally blended products. Retained reference samples, lot approval and clear specifications protect you; see lot-to-lot consistency and origin claims and how to verify them.
07 · Practical steps
A short planning checklist
- Split your range into premium and volume grades with separate briefs
- Confirm annual volumes with suppliers around the first harvest
- Ask for allocation and price review terms in writing
- Qualify a second source in a different region
- Keep retained samples and approve each production lot
- Model your cost per unit with a price buffer for the year
If you want a Japan-side team to hold these conversations with suppliers, that is what our procurement service does.
08 · FAQ
Frequently asked questions
Will matcha prices come down?
Nobody can promise that. Supply can only grow as fast as shaded fields, milling capacity and farm labour allow, and demand has been strong. Plan with a price buffer, diversify grades and origins, and secure allocation early rather than waiting for a correction.
Is there a matcha shortage?
Supply of first-harvest, premium grades from the best-known regions has been tight since 2024, with allocations and purchase limits at some producers. Beverage and food grades from other regions and later harvests remain more available.
How early should I confirm annual volumes?
Around the first harvest in late spring, or as soon after as your forecast allows. Buyers who confirm then, and take their allocation, are prioritised when supply is short.
Japan-side support
Worried about securing next year’s supply?
Share your usage, grades and timing. We speak with suppliers in Japan about realistic allocations and terms and help you plan an order calendar.
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